The complicated case of Honduras

I make this post in order to set a context of the Honduras situation during the last days of June 2009, this is part of my point of view trying to extract my personal feelings about the situation. I welcome any comments and suggestions of any kind.

Facts

• The President of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya Rosales, called for a public opinion survey to be held the 28th of June with the goal of adding a 4th Ballot Box of Referendum, the 1st is for president, the 2nd is for the city major and the 3rd is for the congressmen.
• The 4th Ballot Box had as a goal to call an Assembly in order to create a new constitution of Honduras.
• The President argued that he had around 400000 signed petitions from the people in order for the new constitution.
• The public opinion survey was managed, supervised and counted by the government by a division under the president.
• The public opinion survey was declared illegal by the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, the Attorney General, the Supreme Tribune of Elections (entity in charge of all election related matters in Honduras and independent from the President).
• The President decided to ignore the Supreme Court and pursue with the public opinion survey and ordered his staff, including the army, to support with the logistics of the survey.
• On June 24th the army refused to support the logistics of the survey because of an order from the Court stating that they would violate the law.
• The President on a public appearance decided to cease the General of the Army, Romeo Vásquez Velásquez, arguing that he did not obey his order.
• The Congress, presided by Roberto Micheletti, decided to dissaprove the President for firing the General of the Army and the Supreme Court decided that he was fired under illegal circumstances because he was, as they concluded, following the law.
• On June 27th a comission from OAS arrived to Honduras in order to supervise the public opinion survey.
• On June 28th the President was captured by the army and sent by helicopter to Costa Rica, the order to capture him was, as stated by the current government, ordered by the Supreme Court.
• A new Excecutive power was installed, becoming Roberto Micheletti as President.
  
• The President is elected by the people during the General Elections.
  
• The Congress is elected by the people during the General Elections.
• The Supreme Court is nominated by the people then filtered and assigned by the Congress.
  

Additional Facts

The President held popular projects such as:

• Providing public schools of a computer lab and soon to be with Internet (@prende)
• Moving around the country in open meetings named "Asambleas del Poder Ciudadano"
• Providing food at schools with "Merienda Escolar" a continuation of the project of Ricardo Maduro.
  

The President also held more controversial projects such as:

• Raising the minimum wage from around $150/Month to $289/Month the project was opposed by many companies arguing that unemployment would raise. It was, however embraced by big companies.
• Joining the ALBA, a country coalision with Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua by the time. The project was opposed by the politicians arguing that ALBA was a economic/military alliance, but then was approved by the Congress.
• Order a direct purchase of oil. The project was opposed by oil companies and by part of the private sector arguing that the government was unefficient and it would cause inventory problems.
• Create a Mobile company managed by the state.
• After the TACA accident of 2008 he planned to move the Capital, Tegucigalpa, Airport to 80 KM on the North at the Comayagua Valley. The project was opposed by the City Major, Ricardo Alvarez who is a member of the National Party, the opposition.

The President had strong opposition during his government by:

• Journals El Heraldo and La Prensa, owned by the same person. The journals are very popular in Honduras.
• Some people from the middle and upper class that refer him as donkey, idiot and stronger adjectives.

The President had strong favor by:

• The government journal "El Poder Ciudadano"
• The government channel "Canal 8"
• The private channel "Canal 36", Cholusat Sur.

The questions that everybody asks

Why was the president removed from power if he just wanted to do a Referendum?

The Honduran Constitution treats as Traitor those who want to change it, specially on 4 matters named the "Petrios" (read Pe-tree-os) Articles:

• Presidential term, currently set to 4 years
• Presidential re-election, currently impossible.
• Territory
• Form of government, currently 3 independent and complementary institutions: one that creates and approves the laws (Congress), one that proposes and executes the law (Executive, lead by the President), one that Judges the compliance with the law (Supreme Court).

Being the survey a path to a Referendum to create a new Constitution, it was viewed as a violation of the Constitution.

He did not follow the recently approved legal procedure for a Referendum, which must be done by the Congress or by 6% of the active population, the 400000 requests are more than the 240000 requests needed. Anyhow there is no legal way to create a new Constitution but he could have reformed around 90% of the Constitution, the only points are the 4 above.

The President argues that he was removed because he was helping the poor and that the private/political sectors were not happy with that. Additionally that those same sectors are afraid because of his ties with ALBA countries.

If he commited a crime, why was he not put into a trial (such as an impeachment) instead of sending him out of the country?

The Honduran Constitution and Laws do not have an established procedure for an impeachment.

Anyhow there was no trial and veredict, there comes, to my opinion, a fault commited by the institutions, if somebody commits a crime he/she should be jugded and clear veredict should be provided.

I believe they sent him out of the country for tactical reasons in order to make harder his return to power, it backfired as he used the international media and international institutions to pressure the new government.

What was that story about a resignation and why was it signed on June 25th?

One of the methods for switching President is if he presents his resignation, in that case the Vice-President, Elvin Santos, takes his place and if not the President of Congress, Roberto Micheletti. Given that the Vice-President had resigned in order to become the presidential candidate for the Liberal Party so the President of Congress took the place.

The date is the easiest part to "justify" given that it could have been a negotiation of the President with the Congress after the Army refused to support him.
The problem is how do we know if it is real? We can not, plus nobody believes it as true.

Why with the military force and not with the police?

My guess is that the Congress was not sure that the police, which is under the Executive power, lead by the President, would follow that order.

Why are the national and international media being controlled such as CNN, Canal 8 and Canal 36?

I believe that the media is controlled in order to control propaganda that generates chaos. Anyhow it is unacceptable, if the current government wants to be called democratic, then freedom of speech through media is required.

If the President and the survey is so popular, why are there not massive riots?

The country right now is divided at least in three parts of unknown size:

• Those who want the President back, I will call the pro-Zelaya. This group is lead by the Unions, small farmers, UD party - which is a socialist/communist party-, student unions and are the ones rioting.

• Those who do not want the President back, I will call them against-zelaya. This group is lead by the political parties, part of the private sector, some of the media and with support of part of the upper and upper-middle class.

• Those who did not want the President to violate the law but are not in favor of the methods to remove him and control the population, I will call them the non-aligned. This group is, to my point of view, is the largest, silent and appears to be just waiting for everything to solve by itself.

Why is the military force on the streets controlling people, and why is there a prohibition to go out after 9pm?

I believe this was done for security of the people. The problem is that in every riot there are people that want to generate chaos and this generates agression and conflicts between military and the rioting people.

If the President had 400000 requests, was it not enough for asking the Congress to add the 4th urn?

No answer, it seems that nobody thought about it or spoke about it publicly.

If the survey was so unpopular, why not leting the vote on June 28th and leting the NO win?

The campaign was that the survey was illegal so it should not be held. Many persons were going to boicot the survey by not attending. Additionaly, many persons were indifferent to the survey, as it normally happens in such cases.

The opposition campaign also argued that the survey was all controlled by the government without intervention of the Supreme Tribune of Elections so nobody, but the government who called it would control/guarantee it. The President argued that it had OAS supervisors.


So where are we right now?

To my point of view, we now have several options, those that come to my mind are:

Manuel Zelaya returns as President of Honduras

• This is probably the only acceptable option for the pro-Zelaya sector.
• The against-Zelaya sector would be afraid of prosecution because of the situation and this might lead to chaos given that the Congress, Supreme Court, Army, Attorney General, etc... are involved so the President could find justifiable to solve the powers and call for a Constitutional Assembly to reform the Constitution.
• The non-aligned probably would not care, as it would return to the status quo before the incident.
• This option would require a strong dialog between the President and the against-Zeyala.
  

Roberto Micheletti stays as President of Honduras

• This in unacceptable for the pro-Zelaya sector.
• Riots will continue, at least until the next government takes the Presidency.
• If censorship and strong military activity continues the non-aligned would become more and more against the current government.
  

Manuel Zelaya returns and goes to a trial

• The against-Zelaya probably would want it.
• It would be unacceptable for the pro-Zelaya.
• It is hard to tell what would happen with the non-aligned, they would embrace it but not with strength.

The General Elections are called as soon as possible

• The against-Zelaya probably would accept it.
• The non-aligned would probably accept it too.
• The pro-Zelaya, at least a part will not.

What to do?

I seriously do not know, I must say that negotiations should be held before any of the mayor decisions are taken and for this Honduras will need help for a non-controversial international leader to mediate.

As it is now there is no civil war, so it is still time to solve the problem.

I really hope that you help us!

*I edited the word urn and changed it to Ballot Box as the appropiate word.